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Vaneck Director: People Tend to Underestimate Long-Term Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs


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Vaneck Director: People Tend to Underestimate Long-Term Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Vaneck’s director of digital assets strategy has explained why people tend to underestimate the long-term impact of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He believes that upon the approval of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), “bitcoin’s price trajectory could follow gold’s blueprint from 2004 and the years after, just much faster.”

Market Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Vaneck’s director of digital assets strategy, Gabor Gurbacs, shared his predictions regarding the long-term impact of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on social media platform X Sunday. Vaneck is among the asset management firms that have applied to launch a spot bitcoin ETF with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

While noting that in his view, “people tend to overestimate the initial impact of U.S. bitcoin ETFs,” which he expects to be only a few hundred million dollars in mainly recycled funds, the Vaneck director said:

Long term, people tend to underestimate the impact of spot bitcoin ETFs.

“People tend to hype the current thing but remain myopic about the big picture. Bitcoin is forcing its own capital markets systems and products well beyond the ETF and that’s not priced in. The question is not what Blackrock adopts, but what Bitcoin company is the next Blackrock,” he opined in a follow-up post.

“If history is any guide, gold is worth studying as a parallel,” Gurbacs continued. He then referenced his post made on Dec. 6 which details why the approval of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF may create trillions of dollars in value for bitcoin.

He explained that the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was introduced on Nov. 18, 2004, noting: “In the subsequent 8 years gold’s price quadrupled+ from $400 to $1,800 adding ~$8 trillion in market cap going from ~$2 trillion to ~$10 trillion.”

The Vaneck director emphasized:

Bitcoin’s market cap is ~$750 billion today, less than 1/3rd of what gold was in 2004. In my view, upon the approval of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF, bitcoin’s price trajectory could follow gold’s blueprint from 2004 and the years after, just much faster.

“I also believe that only a few $10 billion will come from bitcoin ETP [exchange-traded products] adoption and it won’t come all at once,” he added. Nonetheless, Gurbacs pointed out that “the boost will be significant,” given “a relatively low bitcoin float (strong hands/long-term holders)” and “systematic scarcity via halving schedules.”

In addition, he stressed that “the ETF itself will legitimize and destigmatize bitcoin’s place in portfolios leading to further adoption outside the ETF.” The Vaneck director further predicts that “nation states and sovereign wealth funds will hold their bitcoin directly and secure optionality for mining and their own bitcoin-based capital markets.” He noted that “central bank gold adoption outside of ETPs drove a good chunk of gold’s price increase, but the ETPs were quintessential to get comfortable with gold.)”

Do you agree with the Vaneck director about the impact of spot bitcoin ETFs on bitcoin? Let us know in the comments section below.

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